Research Publication Title

Does Making The Last Cut Effect a PGA Golfers Next Cut?

Presenter Information

Nolan EnglishFollow

Major

Economics

Faculty Mentor

Dr. Brooke Conaway

Keywords

golf, logistic, regression, finance, economics, portfolio

Abstract

Each event in the PGA (Professional Golfers’ Association) tour typically includes 156 competing golfers. Previous literature has shown that there is little evidence that making a previous cut has an effect on future performance (Akers 2016). Most events have a cut after 36 holes, half of the total played, eliminating the golfers in 71st place or lower. My goal is to predict which golfers will make the cut. Daily Fantasy Golf (DFG) has become an increasingly popular form of sports betting, where players attempt to build the optimal portfolio of golfers based on expected performance. Better performing golfers are more expensive, and knowing the likelihood that a golfer will make the cut would be a significant advantage when making DFG selections. I constructed optimal DFG lineups from a financial portfolio perspective. Previous research has been done on golfers making the cut, but none have used a portfolio optimization strategy. I implement this strategy and use a logistic regression to estimate the probability that each golfer makes the cut. Finally, I calculate the expected value of each golfer’s daily fantasy performance to build an optimal portfolio of golfers. Controlling for various performance measures, I conclude from my results that making the last cut positively impacts the probability of golfer making the next cut.

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Does Making The Last Cut Effect a PGA Golfers Next Cut?

Each event in the PGA (Professional Golfers’ Association) tour typically includes 156 competing golfers. Previous literature has shown that there is little evidence that making a previous cut has an effect on future performance (Akers 2016). Most events have a cut after 36 holes, half of the total played, eliminating the golfers in 71st place or lower. My goal is to predict which golfers will make the cut. Daily Fantasy Golf (DFG) has become an increasingly popular form of sports betting, where players attempt to build the optimal portfolio of golfers based on expected performance. Better performing golfers are more expensive, and knowing the likelihood that a golfer will make the cut would be a significant advantage when making DFG selections. I constructed optimal DFG lineups from a financial portfolio perspective. Previous research has been done on golfers making the cut, but none have used a portfolio optimization strategy. I implement this strategy and use a logistic regression to estimate the probability that each golfer makes the cut. Finally, I calculate the expected value of each golfer’s daily fantasy performance to build an optimal portfolio of golfers. Controlling for various performance measures, I conclude from my results that making the last cut positively impacts the probability of golfer making the next cut.