Does College Football Recruit Quality Affect Win Percentage?
Faculty Mentor(s) Name(s)
Brooke Conaway
Abstract
College football is a popular sport in the US, and it generates huge amounts of revenue for colleges and local businesses. Colleges want quality student-athletes that will bring in more revenue, and it can be a lucrative business for large colleges. My goal is to estimate the effect of recruit quality on team performance, using team level panel data. The data I am using are from the five biggest conferences in Division One, and they are from 2003 through 2018 seasons. They come from Rivals and Sports Reference, two top sources of sports and recruiting data. My key variable is “stars,” which is a metric used to rate high school recruits that have college level potential. A recruit can be ranked from three to five stars, five stars being the most talented recruits. I believe my key variable will have a positive impact on win percentage, since better talent should result in better performance. I am controlling for points for, points against, strength of schedule, and team fixed effects, which I’m hoping will get a more accurate measure of how recruits affect performance. Controlling for other relevant factors as well as team fixed effects, my preliminary results indicate that higher team level star averages negatively affect winning percentages.
Start Date
27-3-2024 1:00 PM
End Date
27-3-2024 1:08 PM
Location
Atkinson 107
Does College Football Recruit Quality Affect Win Percentage?
Atkinson 107
College football is a popular sport in the US, and it generates huge amounts of revenue for colleges and local businesses. Colleges want quality student-athletes that will bring in more revenue, and it can be a lucrative business for large colleges. My goal is to estimate the effect of recruit quality on team performance, using team level panel data. The data I am using are from the five biggest conferences in Division One, and they are from 2003 through 2018 seasons. They come from Rivals and Sports Reference, two top sources of sports and recruiting data. My key variable is “stars,” which is a metric used to rate high school recruits that have college level potential. A recruit can be ranked from three to five stars, five stars being the most talented recruits. I believe my key variable will have a positive impact on win percentage, since better talent should result in better performance. I am controlling for points for, points against, strength of schedule, and team fixed effects, which I’m hoping will get a more accurate measure of how recruits affect performance. Controlling for other relevant factors as well as team fixed effects, my preliminary results indicate that higher team level star averages negatively affect winning percentages.